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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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