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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Sunday, 02 October 22
MISC STRENGTHENS ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH SEARIVER MARITIME
MISC Berhad (MISC) today announced that its subsidiaries Polaris LNG Three Pte. Ltd. and Polaris LNG Four Pte. Ltd. have secured long-term time cha ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This week, focus turns to the 38th APPEC Conference, where leading professionals from the global oil industry will discuss the future key drivers o ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
HIGH COAL PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DOMESTIC NON-FERROUS METAL COMPANIES - ICRA
According to ICRA on Monday, the high price of coal will have a negative effect on the profitability of domestic non-ferrous metal companies that m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 22
14% INCREASE IN EUROPEAN COAL DEMAND TO BE SHORT-TERM TREND - WOOD MACKENZIE
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the curr ...
Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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