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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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