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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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