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Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in many key growing areas, raising concerns regarding global food security, amid rallying food inflation.
In the US, recently released estimates from Pro Farmer, regarding corn and soybean crops, are 4% lower than the official government forecasts, which is dismaying. Bolstering heat and drought have severely impacted part of the Farm Belt over the previous months. Production output is crucial, as it will determine grain prices for the upcoming months. According to USDA’s latest report, in total, 89.8 million acres were planted to corn in 2022, while 87.2 million acres were planted to soybean. Overall, corn production is decreased by 5% y-o-y, while soybean harvest is forecasted to increase by 2% y-o-y.
In China, the worst drought since the early 1960s in central and southwestern areas paired with floods in the northeast threaten hundreds of million tons of grain harvest that is reaped during the fall. Rice harvests in areas along the Yangtze River and the Sichuan basin, the two regions where half of the country’s rice is produced, have been severely impacted. Total corn output is also estimated to be reduced by 4.5mn tons due to floods, according to Chinese commodities broker Yongan Futures Co. A loss of harvest will lead to increased demand for imports and will push prices upwards, posing threat to global food security. The country is now turning to the US for imports amid surging Brazil soybean prices, with a total of 859,836 tons being imported to the country since April 22, according to USDA.
India’s rice harvest is expected to significantly drop as of shrunk planted region due to extremely high temperatures. According to the country’s Food Corporation, rice harvest is expected to drop by 10% in the upcoming harvest season, typically occurring between November-December, decreasing the country’s rice output to 117mn metric tons. According to USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, 110 million tons out of the total 117 million tons, will be domestically consumed, thus leaving a total of 7 million tons for exports. August wheat stocks also slumped to a 14-year record low, while wheat inflation hit 12%. The country is discussing a potential curb on broken rice exports, which if decided will have ripple effects on the global food supply chain, while on Aug.27 it announced a ban on wheat flour exports with occasional exceptions.
Ukraine’s grain is leaving its ports smoothly with exports steadily ramping up. Ukraine’s grain exports are currently 50% lower y-o-y. Ukrainian wheat sales, albeit improved, are not adequate to support wheat prices, which stand currently below growing costs. On Aug.30, the country's Ministry of Infrastructures announced that approx. 1.5mn tons of grains have been exported so far from the country’s ports. However, next season’s harvest, which has already started to be sown, is undermined by destroyed farmlands and weak domestic prices.
Meanwhile, in the rest EU area, farmers have been grappling with drought, while estimating their summer crop yields to drop significantly. EU’s corn crop is estimated to hit a 15-year low, estimated at 59.3mn tons in 2022/2023 harvest, according to the European Commission’ latest forecast. According to FranceAgriMer, only 53% of the country’s corn crop is in good or very good condition, while according to Agritel’s latest estimate, the country’s 2022/2023 wheat production will reach 33.63mn tons, slumping below the 5-year average. Meanwhile, in Romania farmers have been forced to harvest their corn crops one month earlier on the back of extremely dry conditions. The country expects a 15% lower wheat output y-o-y, approx. 9mn tons, according to the Minister of Agriculture.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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