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Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in many key growing areas, raising concerns regarding global food security, amid rallying food inflation.
In the US, recently released estimates from Pro Farmer, regarding corn and soybean crops, are 4% lower than the official government forecasts, which is dismaying. Bolstering heat and drought have severely impacted part of the Farm Belt over the previous months. Production output is crucial, as it will determine grain prices for the upcoming months. According to USDA’s latest report, in total, 89.8 million acres were planted to corn in 2022, while 87.2 million acres were planted to soybean. Overall, corn production is decreased by 5% y-o-y, while soybean harvest is forecasted to increase by 2% y-o-y.
In China, the worst drought since the early 1960s in central and southwestern areas paired with floods in the northeast threaten hundreds of million tons of grain harvest that is reaped during the fall. Rice harvests in areas along the Yangtze River and the Sichuan basin, the two regions where half of the country’s rice is produced, have been severely impacted. Total corn output is also estimated to be reduced by 4.5mn tons due to floods, according to Chinese commodities broker Yongan Futures Co. A loss of harvest will lead to increased demand for imports and will push prices upwards, posing threat to global food security. The country is now turning to the US for imports amid surging Brazil soybean prices, with a total of 859,836 tons being imported to the country since April 22, according to USDA.
India’s rice harvest is expected to significantly drop as of shrunk planted region due to extremely high temperatures. According to the country’s Food Corporation, rice harvest is expected to drop by 10% in the upcoming harvest season, typically occurring between November-December, decreasing the country’s rice output to 117mn metric tons. According to USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, 110 million tons out of the total 117 million tons, will be domestically consumed, thus leaving a total of 7 million tons for exports. August wheat stocks also slumped to a 14-year record low, while wheat inflation hit 12%. The country is discussing a potential curb on broken rice exports, which if decided will have ripple effects on the global food supply chain, while on Aug.27 it announced a ban on wheat flour exports with occasional exceptions.
Ukraine’s grain is leaving its ports smoothly with exports steadily ramping up. Ukraine’s grain exports are currently 50% lower y-o-y. Ukrainian wheat sales, albeit improved, are not adequate to support wheat prices, which stand currently below growing costs. On Aug.30, the country's Ministry of Infrastructures announced that approx. 1.5mn tons of grains have been exported so far from the country’s ports. However, next season’s harvest, which has already started to be sown, is undermined by destroyed farmlands and weak domestic prices.
Meanwhile, in the rest EU area, farmers have been grappling with drought, while estimating their summer crop yields to drop significantly. EU’s corn crop is estimated to hit a 15-year low, estimated at 59.3mn tons in 2022/2023 harvest, according to the European Commission’ latest forecast. According to FranceAgriMer, only 53% of the country’s corn crop is in good or very good condition, while according to Agritel’s latest estimate, the country’s 2022/2023 wheat production will reach 33.63mn tons, slumping below the 5-year average. Meanwhile, in Romania farmers have been forced to harvest their corn crops one month earlier on the back of extremely dry conditions. The country expects a 15% lower wheat output y-o-y, approx. 9mn tons, according to the Minister of Agriculture.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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