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Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in many key growing areas, raising concerns regarding global food security, amid rallying food inflation.
In the US, recently released estimates from Pro Farmer, regarding corn and soybean crops, are 4% lower than the official government forecasts, which is dismaying. Bolstering heat and drought have severely impacted part of the Farm Belt over the previous months. Production output is crucial, as it will determine grain prices for the upcoming months. According to USDA’s latest report, in total, 89.8 million acres were planted to corn in 2022, while 87.2 million acres were planted to soybean. Overall, corn production is decreased by 5% y-o-y, while soybean harvest is forecasted to increase by 2% y-o-y.
In China, the worst drought since the early 1960s in central and southwestern areas paired with floods in the northeast threaten hundreds of million tons of grain harvest that is reaped during the fall. Rice harvests in areas along the Yangtze River and the Sichuan basin, the two regions where half of the country’s rice is produced, have been severely impacted. Total corn output is also estimated to be reduced by 4.5mn tons due to floods, according to Chinese commodities broker Yongan Futures Co. A loss of harvest will lead to increased demand for imports and will push prices upwards, posing threat to global food security. The country is now turning to the US for imports amid surging Brazil soybean prices, with a total of 859,836 tons being imported to the country since April 22, according to USDA.
India’s rice harvest is expected to significantly drop as of shrunk planted region due to extremely high temperatures. According to the country’s Food Corporation, rice harvest is expected to drop by 10% in the upcoming harvest season, typically occurring between November-December, decreasing the country’s rice output to 117mn metric tons. According to USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, 110 million tons out of the total 117 million tons, will be domestically consumed, thus leaving a total of 7 million tons for exports. August wheat stocks also slumped to a 14-year record low, while wheat inflation hit 12%. The country is discussing a potential curb on broken rice exports, which if decided will have ripple effects on the global food supply chain, while on Aug.27 it announced a ban on wheat flour exports with occasional exceptions.
Ukraine’s grain is leaving its ports smoothly with exports steadily ramping up. Ukraine’s grain exports are currently 50% lower y-o-y. Ukrainian wheat sales, albeit improved, are not adequate to support wheat prices, which stand currently below growing costs. On Aug.30, the country's Ministry of Infrastructures announced that approx. 1.5mn tons of grains have been exported so far from the country’s ports. However, next season’s harvest, which has already started to be sown, is undermined by destroyed farmlands and weak domestic prices.
Meanwhile, in the rest EU area, farmers have been grappling with drought, while estimating their summer crop yields to drop significantly. EU’s corn crop is estimated to hit a 15-year low, estimated at 59.3mn tons in 2022/2023 harvest, according to the European Commission’ latest forecast. According to FranceAgriMer, only 53% of the country’s corn crop is in good or very good condition, while according to Agritel’s latest estimate, the country’s 2022/2023 wheat production will reach 33.63mn tons, slumping below the 5-year average. Meanwhile, in Romania farmers have been forced to harvest their corn crops one month earlier on the back of extremely dry conditions. The country expects a 15% lower wheat output y-o-y, approx. 9mn tons, according to the Minister of Agriculture.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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