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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 09 June 20
INDIA: COAL IMPORT DROPS BY 20% TO NEARLY 19 MILLION TONNES IN MAY, SAYS REPORT - HINDUSTAN TIMES
The country’s coal import dropped by 20 per cent to 18.93 million tonnes (MT) last month, industry data showed.
The government ...
Monday, 08 June 20
WOOD MACKENZIE: THE INDISPENSABLE OPEC+
Rumours of “the death of OPEC” have been circulating for almost as long as the organisation has existed. Just three years after the car ...
Monday, 08 June 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FALL NEARLY 20% IN MAY EVEN AS DEMAND RISES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports in May fell nearly 20% compared with a year earlier even as demand recovered at power plants and industrial users, custo ...
Monday, 08 June 20
JUNE 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HIT US$ 52.98 A TON, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AT LEAST AUGUST 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Sunday, 07 June 20
A SCRUBBER FITTED 61,000 ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES TRIP VIA SOUTH AFRICA REDELIVERY VIETNAM AT $9,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The small flicker of hope at the beginning of this week has kindled a small fire under the Capesize market. At a paltry $3369 from the ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
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