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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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