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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 January 21
COAL TO BE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO INDIA'S $5 TRILLION ECONOMY: AMIT SHAH - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre on Monday awarded the letter of allocation to successful bidders of coal mines under the commercial auction held during October-November ...
Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle ...
Sunday, 10 January 21
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 880,000 TONS OF COAL FOR MARCH 2021 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO issued an international tender for total 880 ...
Friday, 08 January 21
INDIA COULD COMPETE AGAINST CHINA IN SOLAR MODULE PRODUCTION WITH THE RIGHT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - IEEFA
The focus should be on helping manufacturers become globally competitive
Although one of the top 10 solar module producers in the world, India ...
Thursday, 07 January 21
FITCH FORECASTS DOUBLING IN ASIAN WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY BY 2029, TOPPING 1,500GW
Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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