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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last August was extremely hot in the dry bulk market with rates rising at levels that we have years to witness. The dry bulk index exceeded the 4,0 ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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