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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of col ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- The University of Queensland
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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