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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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