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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 01 December 16
OIL PRICES MAY SEE LITTLE GROWTH BEFORE 2018, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
High inventories and the potential for US shale production to respond quickly to any market tightening mean oil prices may flat line in 2017 before ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
CHINA 2017 OIL, GAS OUTPUT DROP MAY WORSEN ON CAPEX CUT: FITCH
China's oil and gas production may shrink even more in 2017 than in 2016 after the country's leading oil companies cut exploration and prod ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
ANOTHER WONDERFUL WEEK FOR PANAMAX - FEARNLEY
Supramax
A slower start to the week in the Pacific compared to last Trips from N. China to S. China is paying in the range of low USD 5k, while I ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
AUSTRALIA'S PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.08 MT OF COAL IN OCTOBER; DOWN 10.39% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,124.7 Mi ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT TOTALS 17.2 MMST, UP 2.8% : EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17.2 million short ton ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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