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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 08 December 16
STABLE OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL MINING IN 2017 : FITCH
Fitch Ratings' sector and rating outlooks for the global mining industry in 2017 are both stable, reflecting Fitch's view that prices have ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
CHINESE COAL DEMAND WOULD BE THE KEY FACTOR THAT INFLUENCE WORLD COAL PRICES IN 2017, POLL
“WHAT ARE THE KEY FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE WORLD'S COAL PRICES IN 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALspot.com ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
PANAMAX: THE FIRM TENDENCY CONTINUES IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Market remained firm - true mostly within Atlantic.
Star performer USG remained its title, where Supras reached around USD 21k ...
Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there ...
Wednesday, 07 December 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 2% IN 2017 - EIA
U.S. Coal production in November 2016 was 70.7 million short tons (MMst), the third time this year monthly production exceeded 70 MMst, says EIA.
...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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