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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 21 November 16
CHINA IS ESTIMATED TO SEE HIGHEST IMPORTED COAL DEMAND LEVEL IN 2017, POLL SAYS
“Which country is estimated to see highest imported coal demand level in 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALsp ...
Monday, 21 November 16
KOMIPO IS LOOKING FOR 140K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR FEB-MAR 2017 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 140,000 Metric Tons of Sub-Bituminous coal for i ...
Monday, 21 November 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX SURGES TO 1257 POINTS W/E 18 NOV; BPI ROSE 37.3% W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rally continues this past week and ending on a positive n ...
Friday, 18 November 16
CAPESIZE: THE COMMODITIES PRICES ARE INCREASING, RESULTING IN MORE DEMAND AND CONSEQUENTLY RATES ARE MAKING A BIG JUMP - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Apart from booming S. Africa where owners have obtained USD 14-15k to MEG/India and around mid USD 12k to China, the Pacific market has ...
Friday, 18 November 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.8 MMST, DOWN 0.8%, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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