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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 14 December 16
20/20 VISION! - JOHN N. COTZIAS
2020; A year that could be changing shipping. In early November, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that it would set a 0.5% s ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET MAY WELL BE SHOWING SIGNS OF HEADING FOR ITS DOWNWARD CORRECTIVE PHASE - ALLIED
2016 has been a tough market for dry bulkers and through these difficult earnings, we have seen some of the lowest prices being noted historically ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
COAL DEMAND GROWTH TO STALL AS APPETITE WANES, ACCORDING TO IEA
Growth in global coal demand will stall over the next five years as the appetite for the fuel wanes and other energy sources gain ground, according ...
Monday, 12 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.3 MMST, UP 7.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million short ton ...
Monday, 12 December 16
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this past week and ending on a negative note week ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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