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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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