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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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