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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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