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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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