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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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