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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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