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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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