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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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