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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 08 March 19
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF AUSTRALIAN 5700 NAR COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origin to be burnt ...
Friday, 08 March 19
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY - YONHAP
China’s coal demand is expected to fall at a snail’s pace over the next 20 years due to the country’s preference for the cheap fo ...
Thursday, 07 March 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TO LOWEST IN SEVEN MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 80,000 MT OF 3800 NCV COAL FOR 21 - 30 MARCH, 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 80,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calor ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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