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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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