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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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