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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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