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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
...
Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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