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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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