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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
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Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
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Saturday, 11 January 20
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Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
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Escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, in addition to a continuing strong market, made for an interesting week, with rates firming ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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