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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 11 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA COAL RUNS, A 58,000DWT SHIP WAS RUMOURED FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, IN THE $4,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Closing out the first full trading week of 2020, the Capesize market is struggling to gain any solid positive upward traction. Opening ...
Friday, 10 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remains flat
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
...
Thursday, 09 January 20
NEW IMO LIFEBOAT REQUIREMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Three new compulsory IMO resolutions entered into force on 1 January 2020. These resolutions deal with the maintenance, t ...
Thursday, 09 January 20
INDIA'S NEW EASED MINING RULES TO ENHANCE FOREIGN PARTICIPATION IN COAL SECTOR: MINISTER
India’s cabinet has eased mining laws in a bid to attract foreign players to the domestic coal sector and reduce imports of the fuel, coal mi ...
Thursday, 09 January 20
SUPRAMAX: A NUMBER OF INDONESIAN ROUND TRIPS WERE REPORTED AT BELLOW USD 5,000 PD LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The Capesize market has hit new low's in the first week of the new year, with the West Australia route being fixed at USD 6.6 being ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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