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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 18 January 20
GERMAN STEAM COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 PLUMMETED BY 17 % - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
Press Release: According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), world trade in h ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
A 61,400 DWT FIXED FROM SOUTH EAST ASIA DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA IN THE LOW $7,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was relatively stable over this past week putting an end to the past months of more extreme declines. While the Capesize 5T ...
Friday, 17 January 20
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 65 MMST (9%) TO 690 MMST IN 2019. IN 2020, COAL PRODUCTION WILL DECLINE BY A FURTHER 14% TO 597 MMST
U.S. Coal Supply.
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 65 million short tons (MMst) (9%) to 690 MMst in 2019. In 2020, EIA ...
Friday, 17 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index, a gauge of coal p ...
Thursday, 16 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA ROUND VOYAGE FIXING AROUND LOW/MID USD 6,000 BSS APS INDO - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Still very rough seas for the big ships, with the majority of the fleet trading Far East or fronthaul and consequently earning far les ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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