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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 20 May 20
ADARO ENERGY BOOKED A 5% INCREASE IN COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME Y-O-Y IN 1Q2020
PT. Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia’s one of the largest coal miner, booked a 5% increase in coal production volume year-over-year in 1Q2020. The ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS HAVE BEEN SURGING THIS YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil soybean exports have been surging this year, thanks to a combination of strong demand from China, a bumper crop, and favourable exchange rat ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT
Seafarers keep maritime trade going so that the food, raw materials, energy and manufactured goods on which so many depend can continue moving arou ...
Tuesday, 19 May 20
AMENDMENT OF THE INDONESIAN MINING LAW: TYING UP LOOSE ENDS - UMBRA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The finalized draft of Law on the amendment of the Mining Law (Bill) was publicly released on 11 May 2020 and was then ap ...
Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
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