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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 29 May 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: NO QUICK RECOVERY FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET AS COVID-19 DIGS DEEPER
The outlook is poor for dry bulk, as the negative demand shock and overcapacity come together to send rates to multi-year lows, even a return to wo ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
COVID-19: A FORCE MAJEURE EVENT? - KYPRIANOU
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
While seeing the unexpected COVID-19 outbreak expanding worldwide and the first cases being identified in Cyprus, the com ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
OIL DEMAND RECOVERED BY 20% IN MAY AGAINST APRIL: RUSSIAN ENERGY MINISTER - TASS
Oil demand remains at a low level but the demand in May increased by 20% against April, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said, cited by the ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Earlier in May, China’s top leaders convened for the annual National People's Congress, following over two months of delays due to the co ...
Wednesday, 27 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.94 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.03 points Monday, up 0.94 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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