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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non ...
Sunday, 24 May 20
A 63,000 FIXED DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY KOSICHANG AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of bounce momentum the market appears to have stalled out once again. The Capesize 5TC has more than doubled since last F ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN 7.2% IN Q1 ON LOW PRICES, CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, fell 7.2% in the first quarter because of low prices and coronavirus qu ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
EWP INVITES BIDS FOR 840,000 METRIC TONS OF MIN 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) has Issued an International Tender for total Max 840,000 Metric Tons of min 5 ...
Thursday, 21 May 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 610000 MT OF LCV AND HCV COAL FOR 2H 2020
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) has Issued an International Tender for 130,000 mt of 5700 NCV coal an ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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