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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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