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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 08 December 20
PANAMAX: THE OVERALL MARKET SEEMS TO BE UNDER NEGATIVE PRESSURE - ALLIED
Capesize
A rather indifferent week for the Capesize market, with BCI 5TC figure finishing the week with slight losses of 0.8%. The Atlantic enj ...
Friday, 04 December 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 04 December 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE REACHES THREE MONTH HIGH ON IMPROVING DEMAND OUTLOOK
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference reaches three month high on improving demand outlook . The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose by& ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
GLOBAL MINING SECTOR OUTLOOK STABLE DUE TO CHINA'S RECOVERY - FITCH RATINGS
China’s post-pandemic economic recovery and sizeable infrastructure-focused government stimulus boosted global metals and mining prices, help ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
INDONESIA CONSIDERING CLOSING 3,400MW SURALAYA COAL PLANT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering to shut down the aging Suralaya coal-fired power plant (PLTU) in Cilegon, Banten, and replace it with green energy, a ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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