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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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