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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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