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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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