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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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