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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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