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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
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