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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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