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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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