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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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