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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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