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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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