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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
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