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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES TO EASE ON END OF INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-14 February 2022: APAC thermal coal prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term due to seasonally we ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
IS ANOTHER COAL SHORTAGE CRISIS LOOMING OVER INDIA? - BUSINESS STANDARD
In December last year, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) shot off a letter to the Prime Minister claiming that the coal crisis was ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
THERMAL COAL'S RECORD PRICE RUN MAY END UP ITS OWN WORST ENEMY - REUTERS
The price of benchmark Australian thermal coal rose last week to trade near record highs, providing a short-term boost to producers but increasing ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
INDONESIA: COAL EXPORT BAN - SKULD
Indonesia's coal export ban in the light of force majeure and off-hire clauses
In January 2022, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporte ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Planning Commission, India
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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