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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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