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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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