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Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
 Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity at the rate it’s achieved for the last three months, coal-fired power could peak in the 2023-24 financial year, and increased solar generation alone could meet the country’s growing electricity requirements in subsequent years.
India’s electricity demand has surged and slumped in recent months as the economy revives in fits and starts, but the fact is that coal-fired power is increasingly sensitive to the performance of renewable energy.
Coal has effectively become India’s swing producer of electricity, rising to new peaks in periods when demand is high and renewable power low, but slumping deeply when demand falls and renewable energy’s contribution rises.
In recent months thermal generation has swung between a daily low of just over 2.0 terawatt hours (TWh) on August 1 (when renewable energy and hydroelectricity provided 38% of India’s electricity), to as high as 3.2 TWh just over two weeks later when renewable energy and hydro made a smaller though still impressive 25% contribution to the grid.
But while the variable nature of renewable energy is well known and the financial fortunes of coal-fired power are increasingly tied to its generation level, it is a recent change in a different number that may prove decisive in determining how soon coal’s contribution to India’s electricity reaches its peak. That number is the rate at which the country is installing new solar capacity.
Calendar year 2020’s pandemic conditions saw new solar installations fall to an average of just 411 megawatts (MW) per month, compared to 665MW per month as the average since January 2017. But since May this year there has been a very strong rebound. A total of 1,248MW of solar capacity was added in June, followed by an additional 1,605MW in July, rising again to 1,672MW in August.
This average of 1,508MW per month for the last quarter does more than simply double the long-term installation rate – it shows just how close India could be to capping thermal generation. If this installation rate continued, solar capacity would reach 109 gigawatts (GW) by March 2024, generating some 87 TWh of additional power annually, enough to meet all of India’s electricity generation increase, based on the latter’s 5.7% annual growth rate over the decade to 2019.
Some other adjustments would be needed if coal-fired power were to peak and subsequently decline. Daily peak demand has been rising faster than daily energy, meaning that thermal plants would increasingly have to be deployed to meet the daily peak, as would hydroelectric generators, without increasing their overall output. Additional pumped storage and India’s first set of grid-scale batteries would also support the peak, along with the development of a time-of-day pricing structure to incentivise demand response management by industry and consumers.
Whether the actual installation rate matches, falls short of, or exceeds this rate will come down to the determination of the Indian government. The current rate would comfortably meet the 60GW ground-mounted component of the 2022 125GW renewable target, but not quite match the average rate needed to hit the 280GW solar component of the 450GW 2030 goal.
What the last few months clearly demonstrate, however, is India’s ability to now accelerate the installation of grid-scale solar fast enough to cap coal-fired power before the middle of the decade and potentially to see a gradual coal generation decline from that point on.
The recent lift in rooftop solar installs, along with increased development of wind and rounding out those nearly completed hydro power projects to which India is committed could make our timeline here conservative indeed!
By Tim Buckley, Director Energy Finance Studies South Asia at IEEFA
and Dr Charles Worringham, researcher and contributor at IEEFA
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Wednesday, 01 September 21
KOMIPO TO BUY 1.56 MILLION TONS OF 5600 NAR COAL OF AUSTRALIA OR SOUTH AFRICAN ORIGIN FOR 2022 - 2024
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the summer season is coming to an end, the dry bulk market continues to rally. The confidence that the outstanding freight market performance ha ...
Monday, 30 August 21
68% OF U.S. COAL FLEET RETIREMENTS SINCE 2011 WERE PLANTS FUELED BY BITUMINOUS COAL - EIA
In 2011, the United States had 317.6 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired electric generation capacity. About 88.7 GW of that capacity was retired in the d ...
Friday, 27 August 21
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COAL'S MASSIVE RALLY AND NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK - CNBCTV18
Australia’s thermal coal at Newcastle Port, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has surged over 100 percent this year to trade above $16 ...
Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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