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Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
 Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity at the rate it’s achieved for the last three months, coal-fired power could peak in the 2023-24 financial year, and increased solar generation alone could meet the country’s growing electricity requirements in subsequent years.
India’s electricity demand has surged and slumped in recent months as the economy revives in fits and starts, but the fact is that coal-fired power is increasingly sensitive to the performance of renewable energy.
Coal has effectively become India’s swing producer of electricity, rising to new peaks in periods when demand is high and renewable power low, but slumping deeply when demand falls and renewable energy’s contribution rises.
In recent months thermal generation has swung between a daily low of just over 2.0 terawatt hours (TWh) on August 1 (when renewable energy and hydroelectricity provided 38% of India’s electricity), to as high as 3.2 TWh just over two weeks later when renewable energy and hydro made a smaller though still impressive 25% contribution to the grid.
But while the variable nature of renewable energy is well known and the financial fortunes of coal-fired power are increasingly tied to its generation level, it is a recent change in a different number that may prove decisive in determining how soon coal’s contribution to India’s electricity reaches its peak. That number is the rate at which the country is installing new solar capacity.
Calendar year 2020’s pandemic conditions saw new solar installations fall to an average of just 411 megawatts (MW) per month, compared to 665MW per month as the average since January 2017. But since May this year there has been a very strong rebound. A total of 1,248MW of solar capacity was added in June, followed by an additional 1,605MW in July, rising again to 1,672MW in August.
This average of 1,508MW per month for the last quarter does more than simply double the long-term installation rate – it shows just how close India could be to capping thermal generation. If this installation rate continued, solar capacity would reach 109 gigawatts (GW) by March 2024, generating some 87 TWh of additional power annually, enough to meet all of India’s electricity generation increase, based on the latter’s 5.7% annual growth rate over the decade to 2019.
Some other adjustments would be needed if coal-fired power were to peak and subsequently decline. Daily peak demand has been rising faster than daily energy, meaning that thermal plants would increasingly have to be deployed to meet the daily peak, as would hydroelectric generators, without increasing their overall output. Additional pumped storage and India’s first set of grid-scale batteries would also support the peak, along with the development of a time-of-day pricing structure to incentivise demand response management by industry and consumers.
Whether the actual installation rate matches, falls short of, or exceeds this rate will come down to the determination of the Indian government. The current rate would comfortably meet the 60GW ground-mounted component of the 2022 125GW renewable target, but not quite match the average rate needed to hit the 280GW solar component of the 450GW 2030 goal.
What the last few months clearly demonstrate, however, is India’s ability to now accelerate the installation of grid-scale solar fast enough to cap coal-fired power before the middle of the decade and potentially to see a gradual coal generation decline from that point on.
The recent lift in rooftop solar installs, along with increased development of wind and rounding out those nearly completed hydro power projects to which India is committed could make our timeline here conservative indeed!
By Tim Buckley, Director Energy Finance Studies South Asia at IEEFA
and Dr Charles Worringham, researcher and contributor at IEEFA
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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of col ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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