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Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
 Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity at the rate it’s achieved for the last three months, coal-fired power could peak in the 2023-24 financial year, and increased solar generation alone could meet the country’s growing electricity requirements in subsequent years.
India’s electricity demand has surged and slumped in recent months as the economy revives in fits and starts, but the fact is that coal-fired power is increasingly sensitive to the performance of renewable energy.
Coal has effectively become India’s swing producer of electricity, rising to new peaks in periods when demand is high and renewable power low, but slumping deeply when demand falls and renewable energy’s contribution rises.
In recent months thermal generation has swung between a daily low of just over 2.0 terawatt hours (TWh) on August 1 (when renewable energy and hydroelectricity provided 38% of India’s electricity), to as high as 3.2 TWh just over two weeks later when renewable energy and hydro made a smaller though still impressive 25% contribution to the grid.
But while the variable nature of renewable energy is well known and the financial fortunes of coal-fired power are increasingly tied to its generation level, it is a recent change in a different number that may prove decisive in determining how soon coal’s contribution to India’s electricity reaches its peak. That number is the rate at which the country is installing new solar capacity.
Calendar year 2020’s pandemic conditions saw new solar installations fall to an average of just 411 megawatts (MW) per month, compared to 665MW per month as the average since January 2017. But since May this year there has been a very strong rebound. A total of 1,248MW of solar capacity was added in June, followed by an additional 1,605MW in July, rising again to 1,672MW in August.
This average of 1,508MW per month for the last quarter does more than simply double the long-term installation rate – it shows just how close India could be to capping thermal generation. If this installation rate continued, solar capacity would reach 109 gigawatts (GW) by March 2024, generating some 87 TWh of additional power annually, enough to meet all of India’s electricity generation increase, based on the latter’s 5.7% annual growth rate over the decade to 2019.
Some other adjustments would be needed if coal-fired power were to peak and subsequently decline. Daily peak demand has been rising faster than daily energy, meaning that thermal plants would increasingly have to be deployed to meet the daily peak, as would hydroelectric generators, without increasing their overall output. Additional pumped storage and India’s first set of grid-scale batteries would also support the peak, along with the development of a time-of-day pricing structure to incentivise demand response management by industry and consumers.
Whether the actual installation rate matches, falls short of, or exceeds this rate will come down to the determination of the Indian government. The current rate would comfortably meet the 60GW ground-mounted component of the 2022 125GW renewable target, but not quite match the average rate needed to hit the 280GW solar component of the 450GW 2030 goal.
What the last few months clearly demonstrate, however, is India’s ability to now accelerate the installation of grid-scale solar fast enough to cap coal-fired power before the middle of the decade and potentially to see a gradual coal generation decline from that point on.
The recent lift in rooftop solar installs, along with increased development of wind and rounding out those nearly completed hydro power projects to which India is committed could make our timeline here conservative indeed!
By Tim Buckley, Director Energy Finance Studies South Asia at IEEFA
and Dr Charles Worringham, researcher and contributor at IEEFA
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Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
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